An upswing in poker is a period of positive variance where you’re winning more than your expected value, resulting in consistent profit and bankroll growth. Like catching a perfect wave in surfing, an upswing can make you feel invincible at the tables.
In poker, variance ensures that results fluctuate around your true win rate. During an upswing, these fluctuations swing in your favor. You might experience a series of winning sessions, hit your draws more often than mathematically expected, or find yourself on the right side of coolers. A player with a true win rate of 5bb/100 hands might see results of 15bb/100 or higher during a strong upswing.
Upswings are temporary by nature. They represent the positive side of variance and will eventually balance out with downswings. Understanding this helps players maintain perspective and avoid the dangerous assumption that their inflated results represent their true skill level.
How Does Upswing Work?
An upswing manifests through a combination of running good and potentially playing well. You might find pocket aces holding up against multiple opponents, your flush draws hitting at above-average rates, or consistently winning crucial pots in tournament play.
The mathematical reality is that upswings are deviations from expected value. If you’re a break-even player (0bb/100 win rate), variance alone can produce stretches where you win 10bb/100 or more over thousands of hands. Stronger players experience upswings as periods where their results exceed their true win rate.
The duration and intensity of upswings vary dramatically. Some last days, others months. The key is recognizing that positive variance, not a sudden improvement in skill, drives most short-term upswings.
Upswing vs Downswing
While upswings boost your bankroll and confidence, downswings drain both. The psychological impact differs dramatically: upswings can lead to overconfidence and loose play, while downswings often cause tilt and overly tight play. Both represent variance, but players typically handle winning streaks better emotionally than losing ones.
Upswing vs Hot Run
A hot run typically refers to a shorter period of good results, often within a single session or tournament. An upswing implies a longer sustained period of positive variance, usually measured in weeks or months rather than hours or days.
Hear It at the Table
Key Takeaway
An upswing is positive variance in action,a temporary period where your results exceed your true win rate. While enjoyable, upswings don’t reflect a sudden increase in skill. Smart players use upswings to build their bankroll while maintaining the same disciplined approach that will carry them through inevitable downswings.
